The World Population Prospects 2019 finds that India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from 5.9 in early Sixties to 2.4 to 2010-15, Discuss the factors responsible to such a decline and the outcome of it.

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According to NFHS, India's TFR has come down to 2.2 in 2015-16 nearing the ideal TRF of 2.1
which would ultimately lead to population stability. There has been a faster decline in the TFR than
was expected.
Factors causing the decline in TFR:
• Increased female literacy leading to more women opting for higher education and hence
increase in marriage age.
• The increasing trend of nuclear family and compartmentalized urban lifestyle: This leads to lack
of care taker for the child, a role erstwhile performed by the grandparents. Thus couples opt for
a smaller family
• The Increased rural to urban migration and the subsequent rise in cost of living also has led to
couples opting for smaller families.
• Increased awareness drive and mobilization by the civil society against the increasing population
Consequences of declining TFR:
 Opportunity to increase the Female Labour participation ratio as they look beyond their role as
mothers: The World bank predicts that if we were to achieve parity in LFPR with Bangladesh, our
GDP will increase by a full percentage.
Non uniform growth across the social sector: The TFR varies significantly, according to the NFHS,
the poorest section has a TFR of 3.2 , second poorest has TFR of 2.5 while the richest has TFR of
1.5 children per women. This will hamper social equity and is an obstacle in achieving SDG 1, 2,3
and 4.
 Short window for reaping the demographic dividend: The share of 60 + population will cross the
20 % mark in 2050, the advantage of labour force is feasible till this percentage is below 15 %.
 The regional issue of population growth: Different states are growing at different rates; the
southern states have a lower TFR compared to the northern. This could fuel further migration
and the ensuing backlash against migrants
Way forward:
The 1994 International Conference on Population and development, held in Cairo provides a way
forward where it was suggested to shift the emphasis away from slowing population growth to
improving the lives of women. Family planning must be provided a broader package of reproductive
health care. The older population growth is going to be 370 % between now and 2050 while the
overall population is growing just 56 %. We need to look after the older sections that are increasingly
going to have lesser and lesser number of people to rely upon.

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